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China is looking to Africa for greater economic and political influence. Here’s what that means for Africa and the world.

Africa looks East

China’s engagement in Africa is no secret: Africa has been a cornerstone of China’s economic and political global ambitions. China’s influence is visible in the skyline of my city Dakar, much as it is in other cities across Africa. Yet China's close relationship with Africa somehow seems to keep surprising G7 countries, whose foreign policies perpetually underestimate Africa's global importance.

Last week’s Forum for China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) – an event that’s taken place every three years since 2000 – highlighted (yet again) the wide gap between China’s engagement with Africa and the West’s engagement.

FOCAC also underscored that African countries – after nine FOCACs – still do not have a coherent strategy toward China. In contrast, China has issued at least three comprehensive strategies toward Africa. FOCAC’s outcomes look more like the sum of 50+ (rather weak) African bilateral deals with China than a continental plan. African leaders need to develop a strong, Pan-African perspective, especially when discussing strategic mineral resources.

Over 50 African leaders made the trip to Beijing for FOCAC, underlining the event’s importance to both Africa and China. The question is whether Africa can leverage its engagement with China to advance Africa’s – and not just China’s – interests.

– Désiré Assogbavi, Senior Director, Advocacy and Strategic Relations, Africa

3 things to know

1. China’s investment in Africa is (slowly) rebounding. China pledged US$50.7 billion at this year’s FOCAC, up from the US$40 billion it pledged in 2021. Whilst that’s well below the US$60 billion pledged in both 2015 and 2018 during the height of Chinese investment in Africa, it’s an indication that China is once again ramping up its investment in Africa.

Why it matters: China’s lending to Africa slowed over the past several years, due in part to China’s softening economy and the high debt burdens of many African countries. That seems to be changing. The support is needed: Africa has an annual infrastructure funding deficit estimated at US$100 billion. The key will be for African countries to get that support – whether from China, the West, or multilateral institutions – without taking on more unsustainable debt or deepening trade imbalances. And Africa must ensure that African countries – and not others – are the primary beneficiaries of Africa’s abundant human and natural resources.

2. Africa has China’s geopolitical backing. China reiterated its support for increased African representation in global institutions, including the UN Security Council. It also reiterated its appeal for reforms of the international financial system and multinational development banks. That includes quota and voting rights reform at the IMF and World Bank — which, incidentally, would also benefit China.

Why it matters: China has been walking the talk, supporting the AU’s (successful) bid to join the G20 and supporting the expansion of the BRICS to include Egypt and Ethiopia. Whilst certainly China isn’t acting purely selflessly, it has positioned itself as a powerful ally for African countries long frustrated by outdated power imbalances in global decision-making bodies. Western powers may want to take notes. And maybe at least the US is: on Thursday it announced support for two permanent seats for Africa on the UN Security Council.

3. The West is falling farther behind China. China clearly made use of FOCAC to advance its geopolitical interests. Beyond its financial pledges, it pledged to eliminate tariffs on products from most of the world’s poorest countries, an expansion of existing exemptions. That includes 33 African countries. It also announced a range of measures to support African trade, development cooperation, healthcare, green development, and security.

Why it matters: China’s financial and political support for African countries continues to outshine that of Western countries (though it did miss an opportunity to pledge robust support for IDA). Contrast China’s actions with those of several Western powers in recent years:

• Germany is proposing over €2 billion in development and humanitarian aid cuts in 2025, following cuts of €2.1 billion and €1.5 billion in 2023 and 2024.
• France’s caretaker government has proposed aid budget cuts of 18%, following a 13% cut last year.
• The UK slashed aid from 0.7% of GNI to below 0.6% in each of the last three years.
• The US passed a one-year extension of PEPFAR, its signature global health program, but has been unable to pass a long-term extension due to ideological debates in Congress.

From the ONE Team

• David McNair on how vaccines have transformed human civilization.

The numbers

• US$64 billion: China’s trade surplus with Africa in 2023.
• 50%: The portion of Asian Development Bank financing going to climate change, totalling US$100 billion between 2019 and 2030.
• 20 low-income countries in Africa are in, or at risk of, debt distress.

Quote of the week

“China will always walk side by side with Africa on its path to modernization.”

–The Beijing Declaration agreed to at FOCAC.

What you should read, watch, and listen to:

• African nations can do more to benefit from ties with China.
• What’s behind the imbalance in the China-Africa relationship.
• China’s interests in Africa are being shaped by the race for renewable energy.
• The EU and China in the Global South: Perspectives from African countries.
• Zimbabwe looks to China to secure a place in the EV battery supply chain.

The ONE Campaign’s data.one.org provides cutting edge data and analysis on the economic, political, and social changes impacting Africa. Check it out HERE.

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