This week in Aftershocks, we assess what happened at the G20 Summit (spoiler: very little), ponder the role of fossil fuel lobbyists at the global climate summit, look at African climate solutions, and more.

Top News

Ball // Long grass: G20 leaders gathered in Bali, to... offer up a rehashing of previous commitments. With little concrete action to address the food security, debt, and climate crises, President Emmanuel Macron said he’d convene... wait for it… another summit in June 2023 to deliver on Special Drawing Rights and climate loss and damage (basically the issues that should have been handled this week). It may sound like we don’t have much analysis, but we poured over the 17 page G20 communique and there is literally nothing groundbreaking to report.

8 billion: The world’s population hit 8 billion on the day of the G20 summit. But with 40% of the world not represented, G20 leaders missed another opportunity: to cut that underrepresentation in half by giving the African Union a permanent seat. That addition would ensure that Africa’s 1.4 billion people would be represented at the G20. Senegal’s President Macky Sall, who championed the campaign and garnered the support of China, France, Indonesia, Japan, and South Africa, tweeted that it will be considered at next year’s summit. In other news, South Africa — the only African country represented — ranked worst on delivering on G20 commitments.

Conference of the Pressure Groups: With the COP27 climate conference happening at the same time, G20 leaders did reiterate an old commitment to hold global warming to 1.5°C. Some negotiators at COP27 reportedly want to move the global climate goalposts from 1.5°C to 2°C to avoid painful yet necessary mitigation measures, such as phasing down fossil fuels. Apropos of nothing, the number of fossil fuel lobbyists registered to attend COP27 (636) is greater than the combined delegations from the 10 most climate-impacted countries. 👀

Armoured?: Germany announced a €170 million contribution to the newly launched Global Shield against Climate Risks. The insurance-like initiative launched by the G7 and the V20, a group of climate-vulnerable countries, aims to provide low-income countries with money to rebuild after climate-related disasters. Critics say it’s an unwelcome distraction from the wider demands of climate-vulnerable countries for climate compensation, known in the negotiations as loss and damage. A new report by Christian Aid estimates that climate change will wipe out more than 70% of GDP in countries across West Africa and the Sahel region by 2100.

Drop, meet bucket: Speaking of loss and damage, a deal to provide countries experiencing climate loss and damage with technical assistance passed a significant hurdle at COP27, and will move to a final vote. And some lower income countries want to expand the pool of donors to a potential loss and damage facility beyond Western industrialised countries to include China and India, two of the world’s three biggest climate polluters. Meanwhile, the European Union’s pledge of €60 million for loss and damage — part of a package of existing and new climate adaptation commitments of over €1 billion — is 0.01% of the $580 billion in loss and damage that lower income countries are expected to experience by 2030.

All bark, no bite: Ten African countries agreed to sustainably farm cocoa, rubber, palm oil, coffee, and other commodities in a way that protects forest resources and livelihoods. Ending deforestation is a key pillar of curbing climate change: the Congo Basin can hold 30 billion tonnes of carbon, equivalent to three years of global emissions. More than 70% of sub-Saharan Africans rely on forests and woodlands for their livelihoods. Meanwhile, Brazil, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Indonesia agreed to establish a funding mechanism to preserve their forests. The agreement may have more (tree) bark than bite, as it lacks binding agreements and implementation plans.

Got green?: The International Labour Organisation launched an initiative to create 1 million green jobs, support the “greening” of 1 million existing jobs, and help 10,000 entrepreneurs in eco-friendly sectors. The initiative would work through banking and investment sectors, which the ILO says is ripe with opportunity and appetite, but lacks practical advice and insight. It’s a smart investment: renewables in Africa can create up to five times more jobs than fossil fuels, and up to 9 million new jobs by 2030. Top tip for the investment firms looking for “insight”: stop making excuses.

From the ONE Team

• The world’s population surpassed 8 billion this week. ONE’s David McNair looks at what it will mean in a thread that was retweeted by MC Hammer.
• David also looks at how global economic turmoil requires a revamped global financial architecture for the Carnegie Endowment.
• ONE’s Gayle Smith writes in Forbes about what the G20 leaders should have done.
• ONE’s Serah Makka assesses the historical origins of the G20 and its relevance today.
• ONE’s Joe Kraus details the impacts of 1.5°C vs. 2°C global warming.
• ICYMI: Watch ONE and Tortoise’s COP27 event "Living in a heating world: lessons from the Global South."

The Numbers

• $1 trillion: The annual amount of external finance emerging markets and developing countries (excluding China) will need by 2030 to meet their climate and development goals.
• 636: Fossil fuel lobbyists at COP27.
• 1.7%: The estimated share of climate finance that goes to small-scale farmers, who produce one-third of the world’s food.
• 7 months: The length of imprisoned Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abdel Fattah’s hunger strike.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

"Three decades of broken pledges. I don’t know what a pledge means to these leaders. But I know what it means to me. Making a pledge means taking care of your responsibility"

– Vanessa Nakate, Ugandan climate activist

What you should read, watch & listen to

• Transition minerals could transform the Democratic Republic of the Congo, but local communities must be consulted. (The Independent)
• Solar, not gas, offers Africa the best economic opportunity. (Carbon Tracker)
• Regenerative agriculture must be part of the climate solution. (European Scientist)
• Keynes comes to Sharm el-Sheikh. (Inside Story)
• The Barbadian proposal turning heads at COP27. (Foreign Policy)
• The results of the US midterm elections could have implications for global development. (Devex)
• Rice and global trade have helped thwart a full-blown food crisis. (Bloomberg)

A look ahead

20-25 November: African Union Summit on Industrialisation and Economic Diversification in Niamey, Niger.

24 November: First anniversary of South African scientists disclosing the Omicron COVID-19 Variant (B.1.1.529) to the World Health Organisation.

25 November: International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women.

25 November - 10 December: Global 16 Days of Activism against Gender-Based Violence.

The ONE Campaign’s data.one.org provides cutting edge data and analysis on the economic, political, and social changes impacting Africa. Check it out HERE.

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