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This week in Aftershocks: a muted COP27 celebration, Africa’s failed French test, Pfizer strikes again, and more. |
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Top NewsBand-aid on a bullet wound: Post-COP27 celebrations over the establishment of a loss and damage fund were tempered by frustration at the lack of more ambitious emissions reduction targets, including a commitment to phase out fossil fuels. Skirting around the role of fossil fuels as a root cause of the climate crisis is something of an... ahem, unsustainable tradition at UN climate conferences. Annual global carbon dioxide emissions have increased 63% since the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued its first assessment in 1990. At current emission rates, there’s a 50% chance of global warming exceeding 1.5°C in nine years. Meanwhile, dozens of global brands are buying “junk” carbon offsets that do little more than greenwash their reputations. {slow clap} Banking on green: In other COP27 news, the African Development Bank launched its African Green Bank Initiative, aimed at boosting locally based green finance mechanisms in tandem with African national banks. Africa needs to mobilise significantly more private investment for climate action. Between 2019 and 2020, private finance made up just 14% of Africa’s total climate finance, compared to 50% of global climate finance. Banks participating in the initiative could serve as much-needed local intermediaries capable of leveraging their knowledge of the local investment landscape and development needs to ensure finance is channelled to where it will be most impactful. Taxing matters: The UN General Assembly adopted by unanimous consensus a resolution put forward by African countries that could mark a shift in who decides global tax policy. The resolution paves the way for intergovernmental discussions about whether the UN should have that authority. The EU, UK, and US made statements protesting the resolution, though they ultimately voted for it, highlighting the power of a unified Africa. The historic decision will assuredly set off a power struggle between Western countries, which want to preserve their control over global tax policy through the OECD, and low- and middle-income countries, which view the UN as a more democratic forum. Françafrique fault lines: French President Emmanuel Macron called French the “true African language” and lamented its decline in favour of local languages to the bemusement of many on the continent. Geopolitics may be fuelling the French government’s frustration: Macron denounced Russia’s influence in Africa as “predatory.” France suspended development aid to Mali over concerns about the ruling junta’s alleged ties with the Russian-affiliated Wagner Group. France will continue humanitarian aid to the country, but its funding cuts could harm one-third of Mali’s people. WANTED: accountability: South Africa's Supreme Court of Appeal ordered former President Jacob Zuma back to prison, ruling that his release on medical parole last September was unconstitutional. Whether that happens remains to be seen: the Department of Correctional Services will now determine if the 13 months Zuma spent on medical parole should count toward his 15-month sentence for contempt of court. His supporters’ antagonistic response to the ruling has stoked fears of a repeat of the social unrest that followed Zuma’s initial incarceration. Zuma recently added his voice to growing opposition against President Cyril Ramaphosa's reelection bid to lead the African National Congress, South Africa’s ruling party. Ramaphosa is facing considerable headwinds, including a worsening energy crisis, rising inflation, and unresolved allegations of money laundering. Zuma himself has been at the centre of multiple corruption scandals. Post-pandemic problems: The financial aftershocks of the pandemic continue to ripple across Africa, with many countries facing steep drop offs in health spending due to insufficient resources. The rapid escalation in health spending witnessed during the pandemic — including a 43% increase in Burkina Faso — has proved unsustainable amidst a global economic slowdown and high debt levels. The likely result: a stunted pandemic recovery and less healthcare for those who need it most. Not good, especially since disrupted essential health services due to COVID-19 has led to increases in other diseases. Measles cases increased 400% in the first quarter of 2022 in Africa, tuberculosis mortality increased for the first time in a decade, and malaria deaths rose for the first time in nearly two decades. Pfizer déjà vu: Just 26% of orders for Pfizer's oral COVID-19 drug, Paxlovid, are going to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), according to Oxfam and the People's Vaccine Alliance. After delayed access to COVID-19 vaccines contributed to low vaccination rates in LMICs, these countries must now contend with unequal access to the oral drugs that could help protect their less vaccinated, and thus more vulnerable, populations from COVID-19’s worst effects. While Pfizer has cut deals to charge “under $25” per treatment course to some LMICs and a not-for-profit price to others, some middle-income countries may pay up to $250 per course of Paxlovid. Pfizer has reported $26 billion in profits through the third quarter of 2022 and recently upped its revenue projection for 2022, including an anticipated $22 billion in expected revenues from Paxlovid sales. Desperate times: Kenya's food crisis is driving extreme actions at national and local levels. Against the backdrop of an ongoing debate over President William Ruto's decision to lift the country's 10-year ban on genetically modified crops, some Kenyan traders are purchasing grain directly from Ugandan villages to address the shortage in their own country. Such measures are likely to continue in the face of projected declines in global grain supplies in 2023. Meanwhile, President Ruto is pushing to expand the country’s tax base in an effort to boost revenue collection from 14% to 25% and address the country’s multiple crises without taking on increased debt. From the ONE Team
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QUOTE OF THE WEEK
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What you should read, watch & listen to
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A look ahead28 November - 2 December: Ethiopia hosts the 17th Internet Governance Forum in Addis Ababa and the main governing body of the Global Environment Facility (GEF) convenes virtually. 29 November: Launch of UNAIDS World AIDS Day report for 2022 in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania. |
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The ONE Campaign’s data.one.org provides cutting edge data and analysis on the economic, political, and social changes impacting Africa. Check it out HERE. |
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