This week in Aftershocks: the persistence of AIDS inequality, the weaponising of hunger, South Africa goes green (hydrogen), and more.

Top News

Off course: The world is not on track to end AIDS by 2030 and inequality is to blame. Women and girls, marginalised populations, and children are being left behind. In sub-Saharan Africa, women accounted for 63% of new HIV infections in 2021. The decline in new HIV infections over the past decade has been significantly slower for women than men, and there’s been no discernible decline amongst gay and bisexual men. Addressing these inequalities — and the gender-based discrimination and harmful gender norms underlying them — will require increased domestic and international investments. Funding for HIV programmes in low- and middle-income countries fell $8 billion short of what was needed last year. It’s nice to see we have learnt from COVID-19 that we need to invest in response to health crises. 🤦🏽

Weaponising hunger: Starvation is being used as a “weapon of war” in South Sudan, exacerbating hunger and refugee crises that have displaced more than 4 million people. Tactics perpetuated by both government and opposition forces include the burning and razing of property, destruction of food crops and markets, and attacks on humanitarian aid workers. 130 humanitarian workers have been killed in the country since 2013, the majority of them South Sudanese. The UN estimates that two-thirds of the population (7.8 million people) are likely to face acute food insecurity in 2023, and that 9.4 million people will need humanitarian assistance in 2023.

Less bad news: Germany, which had planned to cut its development budget by €1.3 billion, will now only cut €190 million, which puts it back on track to meet the UN target of spending 0.7% of its gross national income on official development assistance in 2023. Following spirited calls from civil society, Norway appears set to make a similar reversal on plans to cut its ODA contribution from 1% to 0.75% of GNI (amidst projected record increases in the country’s oil and gas income, no less). With public finances in many low- and middle-income countries stretched thin by the pandemic, depreciating currencies, and mounting debt, this is good news.

Bitter medicine: Ghana announced it will restructure its debt, reneging on earlier assurances from President Nana Akufo-Addo that the government's bondholders would not incur losses. Debt restructuring will happen alongside other cost-cutting measures, including a hiring freeze and spending cuts for civil servants, increases in value added tax, and the use of gold instead of dollar reserves to purchase oil products. The country is under pressure to get its finances in order as it negotiates with the International Monetary Fund for a $3 billion loan to help address its worsening economic crisis. In response, the credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded Ghana to its second-lowest score, on par with Sri Lanka, which defaulted on its debt earlier this year. Moody said “substantial losses” are likely for private creditors.

Seeing green: The South African government has given nine green hydrogen projects priority status for expedited implementation, with another 10 in the pipeline. The country aims to become a global leader in green hydrogen production, part of a broader energy transition strategy. The country's planned transition away from fossil fuels is not without its challengers. The country's minister of mineral resources and energy, an outspoken proponent of fossil fuel expansion, has joined multinational oil company Shell in appealing a recent court ruling that blocked Shell's plans for oil and gas exploration along the country's ecologically sensitive Wild Coast. Shell lauds itself for “respecting nature,” “protecting the environment,” and “making a positive contribution to biodiversity.”

Rebel rebel: The rebel group M23 has agreed to a conditional ceasefire in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The group, however, has ignored calls from East African leaders to disarm and withdraw from seized territory. The DRC government has rejected a request for direct talks with M23, which it classifies as a terrorist group. Meanwhile, Rwanda has quietly expanded its involvement in security missions across Africa. It is the fifth-largest contributor to United Nations missions globally, and the second largest contributor in Africa, a role that has increased Rwanda’s influence in the region and could be aimed in part at softening international criticism of its alleged human rights abuses.

From the ONE Team

• ONE’s Désiré Assogbavi explores what’s at stake at the upcoming US-Africa Leaders’ Summit.
• Join us at 13:30 GMT on Monday 5 December for a discussion on “How do you build a fairer world in an era of permacrisis,” ONE’s latest collaboration with Tortoise Media.
• ONE’s David McNair and CGD’s Daouda Sembene outline steps the IMF should take to better support climate vulnerable countries. They also wrote about why today’s debt crisis requires a different kind of thinking.
• Youth Capital, in collaboration with ONE and YES, assesses the challenges that small, micro, and medium businesses in South Africa face when hiring and retaining young people.
• ONE’s Micaela Iveson explores how Putin’s war is helping spread HIV.

The Numbers

• 1,200,000: The number of children and adolescents with HIV not receiving treatment in 2021.
• 56%: The estimated share of female homicides in 2021 committed by intimate partners or other family members, compared to 11% of male homicides.
• 53.8%: The depreciation of Ghana’s cedi against the US dollar in 2022, compared to an average annual depreciation of 7% between 2017 and 2021.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

"The only effective route map to ending AIDS, achieving the sustainable development goals and ensuring health, rights and shared prosperity, is a feminist route map."

– Winnie Byanyima, Executive Director of UNAIDS

What you should read, watch & listen to

• How can a transformational new social contract be won? (Christian Aid)
• Are we overcounting ODA by tens of billions? (Devex)
• London’s Horniman Museum returns artefacts looted during colonialism to Nigeria. (Premium Times)
• How passport inequity bars global south experts from crucial summits. (Devex)
• Tracking commitments at COP27. (Donor Tracker)

A look ahead

6-10 December: The International Anti-Corruption Conference takes place in Washington DC.

9 December: International Anti-Corruption Day.

7-19 December: The UN Biodiversity Conference and the 15th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP15) to the Convention on Biological Diversity takes place in Montreal, Canada.

The ONE Campaign’s data.one.org provides cutting edge data and analysis on the economic, political, and social changes impacting Africa. Check it out HERE.

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