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This week in Aftershocks: the misplaced blame game about vaccine hesitancy, a not-so-happy New Year’s economic outlook, Zambia’s copper craze, and more. |
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Top NewsMisplaced blame game: Turns out, unequal access to COVID-19 vaccines was the main driver for vaccine inequality, not vaccine hesitancy. Unequal access accounted for 70-80% of vaccination inequality globally, according to the IMF. Vaccine hesitancy – widely cited in the West to rationalise low vaccine rates in poorer countries – accounted for only 13% of vaccination inequality between the second quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, when vaccine disparities between high- and low-income countries soared. Poorer countries are still paying the cost: just 22% of people in low-income countries have been fully vaccinated against COVID, more than three times less than the vaccination rate in high-income countries. A looming lost decade? African countries could be staring down the barrel of a lost decade, driven by stagnating economic growth, a global recession, spiralling debt, and rampant inflation. The World Bank is forecasting a deceleration in growth and possible recession in 2023. Debt in emerging markets and developing economies is at a 50-year high, and by 2024 their GDPs are forecast to be 6% below the levels expected before the pandemic. In more positive news, the World Bank is proposing reforms to better meet the financing needs of vulnerable countries, though it continues to be overly cautious and under-ambitious. Our analysis highlights several of the proposed reforms, including better leveraging its existing balance sheet to lend more money. Unprecedented: Malawi is in the grip of its worst cholera outbreak in decades, with 21,000 cases and 704 deaths recorded as of 4 January 2023. The current outbreak, which started last March, has bucked historical trends by persisting through the summer months. Some experts attribute this to the damage that Tropical Storm Ana caused to the country’s water and sanitation infrastructure in January 2022. New research finds that extreme weather is linked to increases in deadly diarrheal illnesses in children, highlighting the importance of strengthening health systems in low- and middle-income countries to build resilience against climate change. In some good news, Uganda declared an end to its Ebola outbreak just four months after its first case, a testament to its rapid response and control measures. Copper craze: Zambia plans to significantly increase its copper output to profit from increased global demand for one of the world’s most critical energy transition minerals. The country is set to receive US$150 million from a US firm backed by Bill Gates, Richard Branson, and Jeff Bezos. The move comes months after signing a memorandum of understanding with the DRC and the US to establish manufacturing plants for electric vehicle batteries in the two African countries. As Zambia’s past experience with copper has shown, commodity booms can be fleeting and do not always lead to broader development outcomes. The country may want to take note of neighbouring Zimbabwe, which recently banned exports of raw lithium to encourage local manufacturing and job creation. Moving beyond resource extraction to manufacturing green technology components is an important shift and signals the potential for Africa to drive climate change solutions. To learn more, see our data dive on climate change and Africa.  (Black) gold, frankincense, and concern: The self-declared republic of Somaliland announced the discovery of oil. A potential boon for one of the world’s poorest countries, the finding could exacerbate, rather than solve, several of the countries’ challenges. Somalia’s internationally recognised government cautioned the UK company Genel Energy against exploring for oil in the region without its permission, since doing so would undermine its sovereignty. The discovery comes amidst a debate over whether African countries should continue to pursue fossil fuel exploration in light of climate change. Additionally, Somalia’s weak governance raises questions about how it will avoid the “resource curse” that has plagued Africa’s many oil-rich countries. Meanwhile, purveyors of highly prized frankincense from Somaliland stand accused of profiting from gender-based violence. The return of Africa’s breadbasket? Zimbabwe is celebrating a record-breaking wheat harvest that – if sustained – could spell the end of its need to import wheat. The development offers a beacon of hope for a continent looking to improve its food sovereignty in the face of rising food insecurity and high food import costs. Unfortunately, the country’s Grain Marketing Board has been struggling to pay farmers for their wheat deliveries, leaving many unable to meet their debts and prepare for the new planting season. 🤦🏽♀️ Food sovereignty is a priority for African leaders – later this month, Senegal is convening an agricultural summit, "Feed Africa: Food Sovereignty and Resilience." Election disruption: Former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo has endorsed Peter Obi, a dark horse candidate in Nigeria’s presidential election. Obasanjo’s endorsement is a significant plot twist in the otherwise familiar narrative of Nigerian elections. His decision to bypass Bola Tinubu, the wealthy kingmaker from his own ethnic group, stands out in a country where money and ethno-religious loyalties are often the key determinants of power allocation. However, the 25 February election could be postponed or cancelled due to violence in the country’s north, which multiple administrations over the past decade have failed to quell. There’s plenty of blame to go around: the inability or unwillingness of leaders – including former President Obasanjo – to address Nigeria’s weak institutions, poor governance, and high corruption enabled the emergence of the terrorist group Boko Haram. From the ONE Team
The Numbers
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QUOTE OF THE WEEK
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What you should read, watch & listen to
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A LOOK AHEAD16-20 January: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland |
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The ONE Campaign’s data.one.org provides cutting edge data and analysis on the economic, political, and social changes impacting Africa. Check it out HERE. |
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