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This week in Aftershocks: We take a deeper look into the causes of, and potential solutions to, food insecurity in Africa.

Top News The struggle to feed ourselves: We are in the middle of a global food crisis. More than 800 million people around the world – nearly 300 million of them in Africa – are not eating enough food. Countries in East Africa, West Africa, and the Sahel region experienced the largest percentage increases globally in the number of people facing the three highest levels of food insecurity in 2021 and 2022. Rising food prices, climate change, conflict, and high fertiliser costs are key contributing factors. In Africa, dependency on food imports is another factor. Despite having the potential to feed not only itself but the world, the continent spends an estimated $75 billion annually importing over 100 million metric tons of grain. Target practice: Finding ways to establish Africa’s food sovereignty was top of the agenda at last week’s Dakar II Summit in Senegal. In his opening address, Macky Sall, president of Senegal and the AU, urged Africa to “learn to feed itself," and called on countries to allocate at least 10% of the national budget to agriculture. If that language sounds familiar, that’s because it is. African leaders agreed to the 10% spending target 20 years ago in the Maputo Declaration and reaffirmed it in the Malabo Declaration in 2014. And yet, in 2023, only one country – Rwanda – is on track to hit that target by 2025. Will African leaders put rhetorical commitments into action this time? ONE’s Désiré Assogbavi, who attended the summit, said there seemed to be a sense of urgency that he hadn't felt at previous high-level events. 1.3 billion Africans are counting on it. Price war: Russia’s nearly year-long war in Ukraine has destabilised the global supply of grain and fertiliser. Before the war, Russia and Ukraine supplied about 50% of Africa’s wheat imports. Ukraine provided half of the wheat the World Food Programme distributed in humanitarian crises, much of it to African countries. The invasion triggered a shortage of at least 30 million tonnes of food across Africa and a major spike in grain prices, helping push an additional 73.3 million people into hunger. The food price index jumped 34% following the February 2022 invasion. It has receded some, but remains 39% above price levels in March 2020 at the start of the pandemic. Hunger, meet inflation: Median inflation in Africa hit 10.3% in November 2022, double that of the year before. It’s one of the regions most harshly impacted by a confluence of inflation drivers – pandemic supply chain disruptions, the war in Ukraine, and the aftershocks of US monetary policies aimed at curbing domestic inflation. The latter has negatively impacted the value of currencies across Africa compared to the US dollar – the primary currency for buying food on international markets and paying down debt. This effectively has increased the price of imports, deepened the hunger crisis, and answered the question: Can leaders learn from the mistakes of the past? (seems not). Empty coffers: Food insecurity isn’t the only crisis facing African countries – many are also staring down the barrel of a debt crisis. Africa’s debt remains at its highest level in over a decade: 22 African countries are now either bankrupt or at high risk of debt distress. And with higher global interest rates increasing the cost of borrowing foreign currency, African countries are spending greater shares of their revenue on servicing debt, to the tune of $64 billion in 2022. That’s nearly double what Africa receives in bilateral aid. There’s a notable discrepancy between the lower interest rates granted to G7 countries versus the higher interest rates given to lower-income countries. That may explain why average G7 country debt is 136% of GDP whilst sub-Saharan Africa’s debt is 40% of GDP, yet only the latter’s debt is considered to be “high.” Shrinking budgets risk exacerbating food insecurity as countries have less money available to fund food imports and food assistance. A way forward:: Credible estimates put the global cost of ending hunger between $39 billion and $50 billion a year. That’s less than half the $110 billion spent on pet food globally. Mobilising and directing this funding where it is most needed will require global and national action: In the short term, countries should target humanitarian food assistance, subsidies, and social protection to the most vulnerable and support countries without the fiscal space to do so. Countries should make investments to scale up food production to support food sovereignty. At the international level, fixing the G20 Common Framework can help provide relief and extra liquidity for debt-stressed countries. And reform of multilateral development banks such as the World Bank – where high-income countries hold great sway – could unlock a trillion dollars of new capital to help ease fiscal pressures confronting low- and middle-income countries. From the ONE Team ONE’s Désiré Assogbavi shares his reflections from the Dakar II Summit on Africa’s food sovereignty. ONE’s Gayle Smith highlights the difficult decisions heavily indebted countries are facing in this “ONE minute on” video. Cameroonian journalist Nalova Akua, 2022 winner of the Michael Elliot Award (named for ONE’s former CEO), talks about the link between poverty and the climate crisis in his country. The Numbers 65%: Africa’s share of the world’s remaining uncultivated arable land. US$10 billion: What the African Development Bank has pledged to invest in support of Africa’s food security and sovereignty over the next five years.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK “The low bar is for Africa to feed itself. The higher bar is for Africa to feed the world!” – Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, President of the African Development Bank Group

What you should read, watch & listen to Towards a nature-positive food system for Africa’s food security. (LinkedIn) The economic potential of fonio, an African gluten-free grain. (The Africa Report) Governance in Africa has flatlined, and participation and the rule of law have worsened. (Mo Ibrahim Foundation)

A LOOK AHEAD 5-7 February: G20 Energy Working Group Meeting 7-10 February: The Global Framework on Water Scarcity in Agriculture (WASAG) hosts its second in Praia, Cape Verde International Forum on Water Scarcity in Agriculture

The ONE Campaign’s data.one.org provides cutting edge data and analysis on the economic, political, and social changes impacting Africa. Check it out HERE.

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