This week, we take an in-depth look at Nigeria’s upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections and the challenges the winners will face in Africa’s largest democracy.

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For whom the bellwether tolls: Nigerians head to the polls on 25 February to elect a new president and parliament, in what analysts are labelling a “bellwether” for African democracy. Elections are taking place in over a dozen African countries in the next year — but none are as potentially significant as the elections in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country and largest economy. With nearly 24 years of uninterrupted democracy, Nigeria holds particular significance for the continent, both real and symbolic, in a region beset by political instability and leaders who hold on to power for decades. Troublingly, the election is taking place amidst faltering citizen satisfaction with both democracy and political parties. Satisfaction for democracy in Nigeria has plummeted 20 percentage points since 2018, a not-so-good omen for Africa’s largest democracy.

Meet the candidates: Eighteen candidates are vying to be Nigeria’s next president, replacing President Muhammadu Buhari. For the first time in the country’s history, none of the main candidates are former military officers. Public attention is focused on four frontrunners:

• Bola Tinubu from the ruling All Progressives Congress
• Atiku Abubakar of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party
• Peter Obi, an insurgent Labour Party candidate with a strong youth support base
• Rabiu Kwankwaso from the New Nigeria Peoples Party.

Since returning to democratic rule in 1999, presidential elections have been a two-party contest between the APC and PDP. This year, however, the popularity of two third-party candidates increases the likelihood of an unprecedented scenario: a run-off election.

Breaking norms: The presidential contest could upend two unwritten conventions of Nigerian presidential politics:

• That presidential power should alternate between the north and south every eight years. With President Buhari, who’s from the north, stepping aside, many insist that his successor should hail from the south. Yet two frontrunners – Atiku Abubakar and Rabiu Kwankwaso – are from the north.
• That the president and vice president not share the same religion, a politically charged issue in a country with a Christian-Muslim divide. Bola Tinubu, a Muslim, has chosen a Muslim running mate, potentially disrupting that delicate balance.

Poor pay more: The elections are taking place amidst mounting socioeconomic challenges. Oil revenues are down. Fiscal deficits more than quadrupled under the Buhari administration. A recent credit rating downgrade by Moody’s will likely make future borrowing more expensive, further constraining government spending. 30% of this year’s national budget will be spent servicing the country’s debt, more than double the amounts budgeted for agriculture, education, and health combined. Nearly two-thirds of the population is “multidimensionally poor” on an index that considers income alongside other measures, including education, health care, and housing. People also have been forced to grapple with ongoing fuel and cash shortages. It’s no wonder that more than 8 in 10 Nigerians say the country’s economy is in bad shape. With World Bank President David Malpass announcing that he will step down, maybe more ambitious leadership at the Bank would better help Nigeria address its many challenges…. 🙏🏽

Feeling insecure:The issue of insecurity will be top of mind as Nigerians go (or don’t go) to the polls next week. The country’s security challenges have multiplied in recent years. Northern states are engulfed in long-standing conflicts with violent jihadist groups, criminal gangs, and other armed groups attacking local communities. In the south, there’s ongoing violence between farmers and herders, as well as simmering separatist campaigns. For the first time since Afrobarometer’s inaugural Nigeria survey in 2000, crime and security were the top problems cited by a plurality of respondents in 2022, ahead of unemployment and the economy. All of the leading presidential candidates have promised to address the country’s security challenges. But Nigerian politicians have been promising – and failing – to do just that for more than a decade.

Jobs or japa: Far too many voters heading to the polls next week will be jobless. 1 in 3 Nigerians of working age was unemployed in 2020. That number is likely much higher today. Many Nigerians barely earn enough to cover their basic needs: 34% of employed Nigerians are extremely poor. Young people are disproportionately affected by joblessness – half are unemployed – which presidential candidate Peter Obi has used to cultivate a strong youth following. Given these realities, millions of Nigerians are increasingly seeking their fortunes outside of the country. The latest wave of emigration is commonly referred to as “japa,” a Yoruba word meaning “to run, flee, or escape.”

Youth on the loose: Nigerian youth have established themselves as a potentially formidable force in this election. Nigerians aged 18 to 34 account for 40% of the roughly 93 million eligible voters; those aged 35 to 49 account for 36%. Many people attribute the strong political engagement amongst young Nigerians to the #EndSARS movement of 2020, which outraged and mobilised many young people. But don’t look for youth on the presidential ballot this year. In a country where the median age is 18, only one of the leading presidential candidates, Peter Obi (61), is younger than 65.

Women power (outage): While the issue of women’s inclusion made it into the manifestos of presidential frontrunners, actual female participation in the elections is sorely lacking. Just one of the 18 presidential candidates is a woman, and women are seeking just 9% of the seats in the parliamentary elections. The latter figure doesn’t bode well for altering Nigeria’s dubious distinction as the African country with the lowest female representation in parliament. Politics is not the only arena in which Nigerian women are sidelined: just 26% of citizens say the government is doing a good job of promoting equal rights and opportunities for women. 🤦🏽‍♀️

Election (in)security: Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) faces a Herculean task in ensuring that the election is free and fair. The scarcity of fuel and cash is disrupting the preparations of INEC staff and independent election observers and threatens to dampen voter turnout. The threat of political violence could curb voter turnout, disrupt media coverage, and erode public confidence. It’s also unclear how the country’s 3 million internally displaced people will vote. INEC will play a critical role in the election, and one that will certainly be closely scrutinised.

From the ONE Team

• ONE’s Gayle Smith will be at the Munich Security Conference this weekend making the case that investing in long-term development is one of the best hedges against instability and insecurity.
• ONE Nigeria and partners hosted a briefing for international media on Nigeria’s elections. This briefing document provides an overview of the key players and policy issues.
• ONE’s Stanley Achonu highlights the need for the next president to focus on eradicating poverty.
• ONE Nigeria’s Vote Your Future campaign aims to inspire youth voices to hold leaders accountable.
• ONE’s Gbemisola Joel-Osoba details Nigeria’s dire fiscal situation and what can be done to improve it.
• Following the Pope’s visit to Africa last week, David McNair delves into the importance of religion in Africa.
• With World Bank President David Malpass announcing his resignation, David McNair lays out priorities for his successor.

The Numbers

• 9.4 million: The number of new voters added to Nigeria’s voter register, an 11.3% increase from 2019.
• $40.6 billion: The increase in the economic impacts of violence in Nigeria between 2019 and 2020.
• 3x: The amount by which presidential candidates exceeded the campaign spending ceiling in the 2019 election.
• 11: The number of SDG goals that Nigerians report the government is failing to achieve.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“A rational human being would not want power at this time in this country.”

– Jibrin Ibrahim, Senior Fellow, the Centre for Democracy and Development

What you should read, watch & listen to

• Eight issues Nigeria’s youth want the new government to address. (The Conversation Africa)
• Embattled World Bank chief Malpass to resign as president in June. (Devex)
• Climate activist Adenike Oladosu highlights the impact of the climate crisis on gender equality in Nigeria in a new video with iLead Climate. (iLeadClimate)
• Can a political underdog save Nigeria? (The Economist)
• View the trailers for the top 10 African films at the Rotterdam Film Festival, including Cameroonian Cyrielle Raingou’s award-winning documentary on growing up in the shadow of Boko Haram. (Africa Report)

A LOOK AHEAD

17-19 February: The Munich Security Conference takes place in Munich, Germany.

18-19 February: The 36th Ordinary Session of the African Union Assembly (Heads of State and Government session) takes place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

20 February: World Day of Social Justice

The ONE Campaign’s data.one.org provides cutting edge data and analysis on the economic, political, and social changes impacting Africa. Check it out HERE.

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