This week in Aftershocks: One year ago today, Russia launched an unprovoked attack on Ukraine in the biggest military assault in Europe since World War II. The direct and indirect effects of the war have been enormous. At least 7,199 Ukrainian civilians have died, 8 million people have become refugees, millions more are facing hunger, and the conflict continues to reorder geopolitics.

One year on, we take an in-depth look at the ongoing impacts of the war, particularly in Africa.

Top News

Peter pays Paul: Refugee costs stemming from the war in Ukraine could be more than $35 billion in 2022 and 2023, according to new estimates from ONE and SEEK. That’s equivalent to 20% of total global aid provided in 2021, and triple the amount of spending on refugees before the war began. The OECD’s rules allow donor countries to count funds spent to support refugees as foreign aid (during the first year). That has big implications for how much aid 💰 is available to support the 648 million people living in extreme poverty {whispers: the majority of them in Africa}. UNLESS, that is, donor governments make support to Ukrainian refugees additional to their aid budgets. Some countries, such as Australia and Germany, do just that. But not all do (stares intently at the Netherlands, Sweden, and the UK).

Playing offence: The war has highlighted and increased Africa’s growing geopolitical clout. Many African countries have spurned the West’s efforts to condemn Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, in part due to lingering resentment over the unequal distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, the West’s disinterest in taking responsibility for climate damage, and, lest we forget, colonialism. Rather than being pawns in a geopolitical struggle, African countries are exercising autonomy. At the African Union summit this week, African leaders expressed (justified) outrage at the unfairness of the global financial system. They set up a working group to develop an Africa reform agenda for the IMF and World Bank. They are also demanding two permanent and five non-permanent seats on the UN Security Council, along with veto rights (reaches for the popcorn).

Negotiating hunger: An additional 112 million people will go to bed hungry tonight compared to a year ago, many of them in Africa. Millions more could face hunger if negotiations for the renewal of the Black Sea grain initiative fall through next month. The initiative has allowed Ukraine to ship grain out from Russian-blockaded ports. The deal was key to stabilising prices of wheat and maize after they skyrocketed in the wake of Putin’s invasion. In 2020, 15 African countries imported over 50% of their wheat from Russia or Ukraine; six countries imported over 70% of their wheat from the region. The Black Sea initiative was ostensibly intended to help the poorest nations, yet just 3% of exports under the deal have gone to Afghanistan, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. Instead, it has largely benefitted China and Europe. Moscow calls that “unsatisfactory,” and may threaten to not renew the deal. 👀

Starving plants: Reduced fertiliser use across Africa could cause a 20% fall in food production, the African Development Bank warns. Like much of the world, African countries are dependent on fertiliser imports from a small number of countries, including Russia and Belarus. Many African farmers are curbing production due to their inability to find or afford fertiliser. One silver lining: the situation has focused attention on the need to improve Africans’ access to fertiliser, including by attracting new funds to the Africa Fertilizer Financing Mechanism. Morocco’s potential as an alternative source of fertiliser is already winning friends and influencing people (the country possesses 70% of the world’s phosphate reserves, a key fertiliser ingredient). Kenyan President William Ruto’s (since reneged) reversal on the recognition of Western Sahara’s independence was soon followed by imports of Moroccan fertiliser.

Powering down: The number of people without electricity rose by nearly 20 million in 2022, largely driven by higher energy costs. It’s the first reversal of progress in electricity access in 20 years. In Africa, the number of people without electricity in 2022 was set back to 2013 levels. In some African countries, household energy costs increased by three times the global average. Rising energy costs are closely linked to food insecurity, especially for the lowest income populations. For example, the average energy cost on food for the lowest-earning 10% of Guinea’s population is 65.7% higher than that of Guinea’s top 10% of income earners. The energy crisis could push as many as 141 million people into extreme poverty.

Economic woes: The indirect economic ripple effects of the war continue to hit African countries. Supply chain disruptions and higher food and energy prices have fueled rising inflation. Roughly two-thirds of African countries increased their interest rates in 2022 in an attempt to curtail inflation, cutting into already limited fiscal headroom. Eight African countries are in debt distress, and another 14 are at high risk of debt distress. The inadequate redistribution of Special Drawing Rights to countries in need and the glacial pace of reforms to the G20’s Common Framework haven’t helped. Neither has the US’s persistent effort to hike interest rates, which has hit poor countries particularly hard. While inflation shows signs of easing, high interest rates continue to curb government plans and private sector investment, including in places like Zimbabwe. One thing that would help: Multilateral Development Banks scaling up their investments by hundreds of billions of dollars. There’s a way, they just need to find the political will.

From the ONE Team

• ONE’s Gbemisola Joel-Osoba summarises the stakes of Nigeria’s election on Saturday.
• Gbemisola Joel-Osoba and Stanley Achonu urge the Nigerian government to end its fiscal recklessness.
• ONE’s Sara Harcourt assesses the impacts of high in-donor refugee costs stemming from the Ukraine war on foreign aid budgets.
• ONE’s David McNair highlights the growing confidence of African leaders on the global stage, and takes a closer look at the outcomes of this year’s Munich Security Conference.

The Numbers

• 4x as much grain has been exported to China than to African countries in February through the Black Sea grain initiative.
• 77% of Nigerians say they are dissatisfied with democracy, up from 57% in 2018.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

"Food prices, fuel costs, debt inflation and three years of COVID ... the people have no more coping capacity and if we don't get in and get costs down then 2024 could be the worst year we have seen in several hundred years."

–David Beasley, Director of the World Food Programme

What you should read, watch & listen to

• The war of influence over Africa. (The Africa Report)
• Against a Western-centric framing of conflict in the Sahel. (Africa Is a Country)
• President Ruto condemns the unfair global financial system. (Al Jazeera)
• Mo Ibrahim on the need to reform international financial institutions. (The Economist)
• A vital moment for World Bank reform. (Financial Times)
• Huge debts to China come due. Will the world’s poorest have to pay? (The Washington Post)

A LOOK AHEAD

24-25 February: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, Bengaluru, India

25 February: Nigerian presidential and National Assembly elections

27 February - 2 March: Africa Regional Forum on Sustainable Development in Niamey, Niger

The ONE Campaign’s data.one.org provides cutting edge data and analysis on the economic, political, and social changes impacting Africa. Check it out HERE.

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