This week in Aftershocks: We take a close look at the rollercoaster Nigerian election – the hiccups, the hijinks, the winners, and the losers.

Top news

While Nigeria was sleeping: Early risers across Nigeria were the first to hear the news that Bola Tinubu was declared the winner of the presidential election. The announcement came at 4am on Wednesday morning after a series of concerning delays. If upheld (more on that below), the win will mark the culmination of Tinubu’s journey from kingmaker to king. It will also continue the rule of the All Progressive Congress (APC). Many Nigerians are hoping that party continuity will not mean more of the same: Tinubu will need to address the country's myriad challenges more decisively than his predecessor. Tinubu's victory has not gone uncontested. His two closest challengers – Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi – are challenging the results, citing serious election irregularities, which independent election observers confirmed.

Tepid mandate: More people voted against Tinubu than for him in the election, raising questions about the strength of his mandate. Tinubu won 37% of the vote in a crowded field of 18 candidates, followed by opposition party candidate Atiku Abubakar (29%) and third-party candidate Peter Obi (25%). Abubakar and Obi combined received more than 13 million votes, to Tinubu’s 8.8 million votes. More troublingly, reported voter turnout was low: only 24 million people voted compared to 26 million in the last election, out of 93 million registered voters. That means less than 10% of registered voters voted for Tinubu. 👀

Obi-wan Kenobi: Despite finishing in third place, Peter Obi managed to win Tinubu's home state of Lagos and the federal capital of Abuja. He also made history by being the only third-party candidate to get more than 7.5% of votes in a presidential election since the country’s return to democracy in 1999. Not a bad performance for a contender whom opponents dismissed as "a social media" candidate.

They had one job: The buzz phrase on election day was "late arrival." Social media commentators and election observers reported on the late arrival of election materials and officials from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) at polling stations. The delays caused some polling stations to open up to eight hours late. Failures of voter verification machines and ballot paper shortages were also reported in several polling units, and may have prevented some from voting. But the biggest logistical mishap was the electoral commission’s failure to upload the results from each polling unit in a timely manner. The delay alarmed opposition parties, civil society organisations, and election observers, and could impact INEC's integrity and the credibility of the election. Not a good look, especially considering that 77% of Nigerians had lost confidence in democracy before the election. 🤦🏽‍♀️

Election deniers: Intimidation and suppression were the order of the day in parts of Lagos State, Tinubu’s stronghold. In this video, an alleged APC stalwart was filmed saying, "If you won't vote APC here, go back home. Nobody forced you to come here. There would be a problem if I checked your ballot paper and saw you thumbprinting for another party. This is APC territory." In a similar video, a popular APC loyalist openly threatened voters from the Igbo ethnic group assumed to be voting for Peter Obi. Opposition supporters were also intimidated in Obi's stronghold. The case was no different in Edo, Kogi, and other states, where ballot boxes were snatched and voters were violently dispersed.

Smack the road, literally: In what seemed like a bad joke, Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi state hired a construction firm to excavate five main access roads leading to the hometown (and election stronghold) of his election opponent barely 48 hours before the election. Many have interpreted this as an attempt to prevent INEC officials from accessing the area, thereby disenfranchising voters. The state government claimed that the excavation was a security measure designed to thwart the movement of criminals whose actions had resulted in deaths and stolen property. Just as timing is everything in comedy, apparently timing is also everything in voter disenfranchisement.

New naira, old habit: The struggles of ordinary Nigerians to access cash apparently don’t apply to some political elite. For weeks, the country was beset by cash shortages following the government’s decision to replace existing naira with new notes. Less than 24 hours before the election, Nigeria's anti-graft agency seized 32.4 million new naira notes allegedly intended for vote buying in Lagos State. In oil-rich Rivers State, police arrested House Representative Chinyere Igwe on election eve while he was carrying nearly half a million dollars in cash (like one often does ¯\_(ツ)_/¯). Also in his possession: a list of people with whom to allegedly share the money, part of an apparent vote-buying ploy.

Naija spirit: One clear winner of the election: the enthusiasm and perseverance of Nigerian voters. There were reports of people sleeping at their polling units and arriving hours before INEC materials and officials (which is easier to accomplish when officials arrive hours late). Some victims of violent voter intimidation later returned and insisted on voting. Many voters waited in line despite heavy rainfall, and stayed overnight for the counting of votes. In some areas, the election took on a festival vibe, with voters throwing mini-street parties, complete with free food.

From the ONE Team

• Gayle Smith calls on the US to pursue mutually beneficial, long-lasting relationships with Africa.
• Joe Kraus shines a light on the performance of non-American World Bank presidents {whispers: there are none}.
• Serah Makka highlights the need for African countries to sit down with creditors to resolve the debt crisis.
• ONE Nigeria and Global Citizen are mobilising Nigerians to urge leaders to protect the future of their youth.

The numbers

• 8 in 10 Nigerians say the country’s economy is in bad shape.
• Half of Nigeria’s young people are unemployed.
• 2 out of 3 Nigerians are “multidimensionally poor.”
• 53: The average life expectancy for Nigerians, 20 years below the global average.

Quote of the week

"There is a huge disparity between the actual experience of people and the promise that INEC made as to how the election would go."

–Tunde Ajileye, partner at SBM Intelligence

What you should read, watch & listen to

• 10 Nigerian political songs worth knowing. (OkayAfrica)
• Nigeria and South Africa’s failure to combat illicit finance and organised crime lands them on the Financial Action Task Force’s grey list. (Financial Times)
• Poverty and a lack of government support greatly influences residents’ adaptation strategies in Port Harcourt, Nigeria. (The Conversation)
• Leaked intelligence reports allegedly expose the crime cartels and political conspiracy behind South Africa’s power crisis. (Daily Maverick)
• A majority of Africans don’t feel safe walking around their own neighbourhoods. (The Africa Report)
• The Ukraine war is impacting “rolex” street food in Uganda. (The New York Times)

A look ahead

5-9 March: UN Conference on the Least Developed Countries in Doha, Qatar

6-17 March: The 67th Session of the Commission on the Status of Women in New York, US

7-10 March: The 23rd Meeting of the Adaptation Committee in Bonn, Germany

8 March: International Women’s Day

The ONE Campaign’s data.one.org provides cutting edge data and analysis on the economic, political, and social changes impacting Africa. Check it out HERE.

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