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This week, we take a sneak peak at the UN General Assembly, taking place next week in New York. Last year, the war in Ukraine dominated the discussions. This year, African countries (and many others) want international development to be a central focus. Global peace and prosperity (not to mention the West’s credibility) hang in the balance. Here’s what to expect...

Top news

A failing report card: Eight years removed from the heady days of 2015 when the Sustainable Development Goals were created, leaders will meet to assess progress at the 2023 SDG Summit. The world is on track to achieve only 15% of the 140 SDG targets for which there’s data, with regression or no progress on roughly 30% of the targets. What’s at stake if the world doesn’t course correct? For starters, 575 million people still living in extreme poverty in 2030, instead of the SDG’s noble goal of 0 people. The promised outcome of the gathering is a “negotiated political declaration.” Let’s hope it leads to more concrete and accelerated action than that well-worn summit phrase typically engenders. The moment demands it. (and here’s some inspiration, courtesy of Al Pacino).

Show me the money: After getting a reality check on the sorry state of SDG implementation, political leaders will have a(nother) chance to fund the SDGs when they convene for the “High-level Dialogue on Financing for Development.” Achieving the SDGs was always going to carry a hefty price tag for low- and middle-income countries, but the pandemic and its aftershocks increased the costs by 56%. The price tag now stands at US$3.9 trillion. At the same time, decreased foreign investment and increased debt burdens (made worse by the collateral damage of rising interest rates) have exacerbated the financing challenges. Addressing the debt crisis, scaling up MDB financing, delivering needed climate finance, and solidarity to deliver a robust IDA replenishment should be high on the agenda. One thing to watch for: whether the unified call by African leaders at last week’s Africa Climate Summit for more new and rechanneled SDRs gets the attention it deserves.

Show and tell: Next Wednesday, the UN will convene a “Climate Ambition Summit” to urge governments, institutions, and businesses to “present credible, serious and new climate action” to address the urgency of the climate crisis. The havoc Storm Daniel wreaked across Libya and Greece highlights the urgency. Leaders could start by implementing the ideas proposed at last week’s Africa Climate Summit. That includes imposing carbon taxes on fossil fuels and the shipping and airline industries, leveraging more financing through the MDBs and SDRs, and implementing a global financial transaction tax. Those new sources of finance would help African countries unlock their green potential and drive global climate solutions. The climate ambition of major carbon-emitting countries and the G20 will also be under scrutiny at the event. That may explain why some leaders are looking to skip the summit altogether. 👀

Health for all, but how?: Six of the top 10 causes of death in low-income countries are preventable infectious diseases. Expanding access to primary healthcare and scaling interventions for the biggest disease killers could save and extend many lives. But as with so many of the world’s development goals, insufficient financing stands in the way of universal health coverage. A high-level meeting next week will need to cast its targets for financing universal health coverage further than the list of usual suspects of domestic budgets, the WHO, the Global Fund, and Gavi. It’s time for MDBs like the World Bank, which has policy commitments on UHC, and international financial institutions, like the IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Trust, to step up to help fill the gaps. Maybe they’ll do so at the Annual Meetings in October in Morocco (assuming they move ahead despite the devastating earthquake).

Make Multilateralism Great Again: The “Preparatory Ministerial Meeting for the Summit of the Future” is the least self-explanatory event on next week’s calendar. But it could potentially deliver the most refreshing developments. That’s because at UNGA 2024, the Summit of the Future will aim to address the elephant in the room: a broken multilateral system. The “preparatory” meeting this year will likely touch on many of the same solutions discussed at the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings, the New Global Financing Pact Summit, the G7 Summit, the African Climate Summit, and the G20 Summit. Despite much rhetoric (and occasional modest measures), there’s been inadequate action. Maybe next week’s meeting will really set the stage for big action next year? {holds breath}

Never again?: COVID-19 laid bare the world’s lack of preparation for the wide-scale health, economic, and social disruption of a global pandemic. To better prepare us for future pandemics without the inequity we saw with COVID — and to preserve hard-earned progress against existing diseases — experts are emphasising the need for sustained political commitment. That spirit of urgency will manifest in the first high-level meeting on the topic next week. Member states are expected to finalise a political declaration. Its level of ambition is already being questioned: Some have criticised early drafts for not doing enough. A lacklustre agreement at next week’s meeting could set a dangerous precedent for future negotiations.

From the ONE Team

• Gayle Smith on the fight for fairness while accepting the Roosevelt Prize in recognition of ONE’s global impact in advancing the principles set forth in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (her remarks begin at 9:30).
• David McNair grades Ajay Banga’s performance in his first 100 days at the World Bank and outlines a vision for a development finance system fit for a new world order.

The numbers

• Over 340 million girls and women will be living in extreme poverty by 2030 if current trends on SDG progress continue.
• 1% of global financial assets could close the SDG financing gap in lower-income countries. Side note: 80% of global finance is held in high-income countries.
• 86% of people want to live in a democracy. Though troublingly, only 57% of 18-35-year-olds think democracy is preferable to any other form of government.

Quote of the week

"The world’s most vulnerable countries bear the brunt of a climate crisis they did not create, underscoring the urgent need for a ‘fit for climate’ global financial architecture."

–Ken Ofori-Atta, Minister of Finance, Ghana, and Axel Van Trotsenburg, Senior Managing Director of Development Policy and Partnerships, World Bank

Hero and zero of the week:

HERO: The G20 for (finally) giving the African Union a permanent seat. We think that counts... better late than never, right?

ZERO: Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, and the Serum Institute of India for their exploitative COVID-19 vaccine contracts with South Africa.

What you should read, watch, and listen to:

• The themes and tensions to watch for at UNGA. (Just Security)
• The world needs to enter a new era of renewed multilateralism. (WTO)
• How the US can rejuvenate the global institutions it created. (Foreign Policy)
• We need the G20 — but what is it for? (Financial Times)
• 2023 Goalkeepers report. (Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation)
• How a new financing pact can help climate-vulnerable countries. (Project Syndicate)
• Why climate mitigation starts with life-saving vaccines. (The Telegraph)
• World leaders can choose the path that ends AIDS. (Mail & Guardian)
• George W. Bush: Michael Gerson’s words make the case for saving PEPFAR. (The Washington Post)

A look ahead

Through 30 September: 78th Session of the UN General Assembly, New York, United States

15-25 September: Global Week to #Act4SDGs

19-21 September: 2023 Global Futures Conference in New York City, United States.

The ONE Campaign’s data.one.org provides cutting edge data and analysis on the economic, political, and social changes impacting Africa. Check it out HERE.

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