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This week in Aftershocks: we reveal the Climate Finance Files, which expose the terrible state of climate finance data (don’t worry, we also provide an antidote). Also, we preview COP28 and highlight progress in the fight against HIV/AIDS on World AIDS Day.

Top news

Introducing the Climate Finance Files: This week, ONE released the Climate Finance Files, the world’s most comprehensive open-source data on public international climate finance. Climate finance data is the wild west. So we spent months finding, cleaning, and standardising the data to make it actually usable. And we made the data publicly available on a platform powered by Google’s Data Commons, so it’s accessible to anyone, anywhere. As it should be.

A COP with a twist: Our new analysis comes as this year’s UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) kicks off in Dubai. Over 70,000 delegates are expected to attend. That number excludes US President Joe Biden but includes a LOT of fossil fuel lobbyists. They may find COP28 fertile ground for new oil deals, given reports that the United Arab Emirates has been secretly planning to use the conference to push oil and gas deals. Secret agenda aside, the issue at the top of the official agenda is the global stocktake. The results of this first-ever assessment of progress towards global climate objectives will be the focus of the World Climate Action Summit on 1-2 December. Some spoilers: we’ve made real progress, but too slowly, and we’re way off track from where we need to be. Our Climate Finance Files reveal a few other spoilers to what donors have claimed on climate...

Smoking gun: The Climate Finance Files are explosive. Nearly two-thirds of climate finance commitments made between 2013 and 2021 – an eye-popping US$343 billion – were never reported as disbursed or didn’t have much to do with climate to begin with. That’s more than the GDPs of over 140 countries! To put that figure into perspective: Global solar investments hit a record US$320 billion in 2022. If providers were to finally deliver all the money they’ve promised, it could double annual solar investment globally. Or more than pay for Africa to achieve full access to modern energy by 2030.

Welcome to the Wild West: Should financing a coal-fired power plant be considered climate finance? If you’re Japan, the answer is repeatedly yes. Should financing a hotel? The US thinks so. A chocolate shop? If you’re shaking your head no, Italy would like a word. What about championing the use of natural gas (Japan and US), outfitting police (Italy), or fighting terrorism (the EU and Italy)? Because there are no standardised rules or definitions, everyone decides for themselves what counts as climate finance. You’ll never guess where this is going… At least $1 in every $5 of climate finance commitments between 2013 and 2021 was spent on things having little or nothing to do with climate.

Choose your battles: Industrialised countries are doing the bare minimum to help vulnerable countries deal with the climate crisis. In 2021, they claimed to have contributed US$89.6 billion. That may seem close to the (low) bar they set for themselves in 2009: to provide US$100 billion in annual climate finance to developing countries by 2020. But that number is almost certainly inflated (we would know for certain if the OECD published the data). Meanwhile, those same countries collectively spent 14 times as much (US$1.3 trillion) on their militaries that year. At COP, they might do a victory lap and claim to have met the US$100 billion goal in 2023. The OECD has hinted at it, again without providing data. But they have already short-changed vulnerable countries by tens of billions of promised dollars.

Help wanted: There’s much ado about the US$100 billion figure, but it pales in comparison to how much climate finance is actually needed (US$2.4 trillion annually by 2030). And little of it is getting to the countries most in need. Our analysis found that the world’s 20 most climate-vulnerable countries received a combined US$1.7 billion in international climate finance in 2021. That’s less than half the value of Twitter after Elon Musk got his hands on it. And that’s just 6.5% of what they need each year to address climate change. Cash-strapped countries are being forced to choose between investing in climate action and other pressing development priorities, like providing quality healthcare to their people. They’re not doing either very well.

Seeing red: How to tell you’re doing climate finance wrong: 43% of countries with severe debt problems paid more to service their debts in 2021 than they received in climate finance. They effectively experienced negative net climate finance flows. It gets worse. More than half (58%) of the climate finance that heavily-indebted countries received was in the form of new debt. That includes nearly $1 in $4 in non-concessional loans. 🤦

Announcement agenda: COP28 opened with a bang on Thursday: the loss and damage fund – widely expected to be a contentious issue – was adopted and a number of countries, including Germany, UAE, UK, US, and Japan made pledges. Let’s hope that cooperative spirit continues. An event on leveraging special drawing rights for climate action teases the possibility of advancing the joint African Development Bank/Inter-American Development Bank initiative to channel SDRs through multilateral development banks. Other announcements to watch for: whether rich countries will claim victory on their US$100 billion climate finance goal, the adoption of a target to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, and the launch of a new “climate club” focused on industry by Chile and Germany.

Prevention better than fire fighting: The urgent and well-documented impact of climate change on health is projected to cost health systems between US$2 billion and US$4 billion by 2030. Yet less than 1% of multilateral climate adaptation finance targeted health according to a 2017 Lancet study. More recent data is hard to find, perhaps due to the terrible state of climate finance reporting. So, there is understandable hype and hope around COP28’s first ever Health Day on 3 December and the jam-packed agenda. Yet, this isn’t the first time health has been on the COP agenda. At COP26, 78 countries, including 29 from Africa, committed to strengthen climate resilient health systems and lower the emissions of health systems. G21 countries that have not yet made these commitments should — looking at you, China, India, Italy, and Japan.

A day of hope: Progress in the fight against HIV/AIDS is astounding: AIDS-related deaths have decreased by nearly 70% since their peak in 2004. 76% of people living with HIV globally are accessing life-saving antiretroviral treatment. Yet as the world celebrates World AIDS Day on 1 December, some challenges still threaten progress. New HIV infections are still rising in some places. Funding for HIV fell to 2013 levels in 2022. The climate crisis is disrupting access to life-saving medical care. And people living with HIV continue to face stigma, discrimination, and crackdowns on human rights. Overcoming these challenges will require empowering community leaders who know how to reach the people most in need. In Nigeria, programmes delivered by community-based organisations were associated with a 64% increase in access to HIV treatment.

From the ONE Team

• This newsletter provided a preview of our Climate Finance Files, but there is a lot more to explore. Visit the page to download the data and create and share your own stories.
• And read our data story highlighting the key takeaways from our months-long investigation of climate finance data.
• Take a behind-the-scenes look at our investigation.
• Joe Kraus highlights the key takeaways from our climate finance data story in this thread.
• David McNair talks to Reuters about the terrible state of climate finance data.

The numbers

• Nearly two-thirds of climate finance commitments counted by the OECD between 2013 and 2021 weren’t recorded as disbursed or had little to do with climate.
• 43% of countries suffering severe debt problems paid more in debt payments to lenders than they received in climate finance between 2019 and 2021.
• 6.5%: In 2021, the world’s 20 most climate-vulnerable countries received just 6.5% of the climate finance they need each year to address climate change.

Quote of the week

"This is the wild, wild west of finance. Essentially, whatever [providers] call climate finance is climate finance."

–Mark Joven, Philippines Department of Finance undersecretary

What you should read, watch, and listen to:

• Who wants what at COP28? (Carbon Brief)
• How we got ourselves into this climate crisis. (Bloomberg)
• The policy trilemma between achieving climate goals, fiscal sustainability, and political feasibility (International Monetary Fund)
• What climate funds are getting right about climate adaptation finance (Climate Home News)
• The Women’s Climate Assembly makes a powerful declaration of what they want to see at COP28. (African Arguments)
• How to unleash Africa’s untapped potential on environmental goods manufacturing. (Development Reimagined)
• The threats climate change pose to human security in the Horn of Africa. (Life and Peace Institute)
• Ending extreme poverty has a negligible impact on global greenhouse gas emissions. (Nature)

A LOOK AHEAD

1 December: World AIDS Day on the theme “Let Communities Lead.”

5 December: Malala Yousafzai will deliver the 21st Nelson Mandela Annual Lecture in Johannesburg, South Africa.

6-8 December: Representatives of the World Bank’s International Development Association meet for the mid-term review of progress on the fund’s existing policy and financial commitments in Zanzibar, Tanzania.

6-8 December: The 6th Congress of African Economists on the theme “Financing Africa’s Development Beyond Crisis” in Lusaka, Zambia.

The ONE Campaign’s data.one.org provides cutting edge data and analysis on the economic, political, and social changes impacting Africa. Check it out HERE.

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