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This week we’re covering the most important outcomes of the COP28 climate conference, a critical World Bank meeting in Zanzibar, and Kenya’s response to Anti-Corruption Day. |
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Top newsStrange way: If climate change is the existential threat facing our species, COP28 is a very strange way to respond. Labyrinthine negotiation processes that few can understand provide ample opportunities for governments to weasel out of their responsibilities and for vested interests to maintain the status quo. How did this process come to be? Here’s an explanation of the origins. One week into COP28 in Dubai, we’ve been tracking the most important parts so you don’t have to. Read on for more. Profit and loss: Leaders agreed to a new loss and damage fund backed by US$655 million in pledges... that’s 0.065% of the estimated annual finance needs. 100 countries backed a pledge to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, and the Green Climate Fund got an additional US$3.2 billion in pledges. These might sound like promising developments, but our new analysis in the Climate Finance Files presents a cautionary tale on such announcements: two-thirds of reported climate finance commitments never actually showed up. Following ONE’s exposé, Multilateral Development Banks agreed to harmonise their approach to climate finance. Ways and means: A new climate finance framework lays out a roadmap for how to mobilise the massive funds needed for the energy transition: multilateral development bank reform, debt sustainability, tax policy, and private financing. At last year's COP, an independent expert group reported that emerging markets and developing countries other than China would need US$2.4 trillion a year for climate action by 2030. Global military expenditure was over US$2 trillion in 2021 — a fact pointed out by Brazilian President Lula da Silva in his COP28 address. Walk the talk: The World Bank unveiled enhancements to its climate-resilient debt clauses aimed at easing the debt burdens of borrower countries faced with natural disasters. The enhancements include expanding the clauses to existing debt, pausing interest payments in addition to principal repayments, and reducing the cost of fees associated with the clauses. This is an important step, but more is needed to support countries facing both unsustainable debt and climate crises. Almost 1 in 2 debt-distressed countries paid more in debt than they received in climate financing. Impractical: Arguably the most important meeting of COP was actually more than 8,000 miles away in Zanzibar, where the World Bank reviewed the most impactful, desirable, and frankly, neglected finance instrument: IDA, its low-income country fund. While the media poured over the US$655 million in promises to loss and damage, IDA actually delivered US$93 billion to low-income countries in the last round. That’s an eye watering 142 times more money than pledges to the loss and damage fund — and all directly to the most vulnerable countries. Sadly, World Bank President Ajay Banga said that a call from African leaders to triple the size of IDA by 2030 was “impractical.” Side note: dealing with conflict, mass-migration, spread of disease, and poverty in the wake of climate disaster without the finance to respond is also somewhat “impractical.” Shut down: Speaking of impractical, 1 in 12 hospitals — mostly in low- and middle-income countries — risk being shut down due to extreme weather events associated with climate change. Over 120 countries signed the UAE Climate and Health Declaration. Activists lamented the lack of language on a fossil fuel phaseout. India reportedly withheld its endorsement because of the declaration’s call for emissions reduction. South Africa, Saudi Arabia, and Russia — all fossil fuel exporting countries —skipped the opportunity to sign up. Gamechanger: ONE has been plugging away on IMF Special Drawing Rights for years. This week France and Japan expressed support for an African Development Bank proposal to use SDRs as leverage in raising finance for climate and development on the continent. The IMF supported the proposal and the IMF’s Board is expected to offer an official stamp of approval in early 2024. This could be the first step in unlocking a cool US$1.5 trillion for climate and development. Housekeeping?: COP28’s list of attendees was... revealing. Housekeepers joined bankers and lobbyists on the UAE’s guest list. China issued 1,411 badges; so did Nigeria, attracting scrutiny from opposition leaders. The government has since responded to the controversy by asserting the delegation’s size reflects the country’s critical position in climate talks and that it only sponsored 422 delegates with public funds. No word yet on the rationale for including the president’s son and numerous personal assistants in the delegation. Russian President Vladimir Putin trolled COP by flying next door to Saudi Arabia for oil talks. Global stocktake: COP negotiations continue on a global stocktake aimed at measuring progress against Paris Climate Commitments. The current text is a bit of a mess. A global “fossil fuel phaseout” target gets a mention... in paragraph 35. And the text lacks any kind of timeline. We’ll keep an eye on the draft for anything promising. Anti-Corruption Day: 20 years after the agreement of the UN convention against corruption, Kenya’s Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission will launch a cross-country public outreach program. It will raise awareness, train government officials on anti-corruption practices, and gather reports of corruption for potential investigation. The commission will also release a report ranking the corruption levels of county governments. Sub-Saharan Africa was the lowest-scoring region in Transparency International’s 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index. But the index itself has some questionable gaps — not least giving a clean bill of health to countries that facilitate corruption through banking secrecy. From the ONE Team
The numbers
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Quote of the week
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What you should read, watch, and listen to:
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A LOOK AHEAD9 December: International Anti-Corruption Day. 10-12 December: Egyptians head to the polls to vote in presidential elections. 13-15 December: The Global Refugee Forum takes place in Geneva, Switzerland. |
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The ONE Campaign’s data.one.org provides cutting edge data and analysis on the economic, political, and social changes impacting Africa. Check it out HERE. |
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