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This week, a sneak peak at elections taking place in Africa this year. With as many as one-third of African countries going to the polls, 2024 will be a pivotal year for democracy. |
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Top newsDemocracy’s big year: Democracy is literally and figuratively on the ballot in 2024. More than 60 countries globally – accounting for roughly half the world’s population – will go to the polls. That’s the highest share since at least 1800 (and possibly ever). As many as 18 African countries representing more than 300 million people will hold elections. Half of all countries globally experienced democratic declines over the past five years. Elections do not make a democracy, but they remain an important component. Below we highlight a few of the African elections that could have significant domestic and international impact. Throughout 2024, we’ll keep you abreast of what’s at stake in African elections as they unfold. Incumbent advantage: The continent’s first electoral test takes place in Comoros with presidential and gubernatorial elections beginning 14 January (with a second round 25 February). President Azali Assoumani has strengthened his hold on power since taking over in a 1999 coup. Many of his opponents are jailed or in exile, and a constitutional change in 2018 conveniently allowed him to extend his rule. Assoumani has guided the archipelago’s economy relatively well, attracting foreign investment and advancing the country’s integration into the global economy. As African Union chairman, he has strengthened Comoros’ visibility on the global stage and helped lead the AU into the G20. Given the boycott threats of the beleaguered opposition, Assoumani is unlikely to lose his title anytime soon. Saga in Dakar: Senegal’s presidential election will (hopefully) end a multi-year political saga that sparked civil unrest. The drama began with uncertainty over President Macky Sall’s intention to seek a third term. It continued when Sall’s administration mounted an onslaught of judicial challenges against popular opposition leader Ousmane Sonko. Ironically, neither Sall nor Sonko will be on the ballot on 25 February. Sall ended speculation over his candidacy last year and the country’s Constitutional Council ruled out Sonko’s candidacy last week. The race is likely to be between the ruling party candidate, Prime Minister Amadou Ba, and Sonko’s envisioned replacement, former cabinet minister Habib Sy. The winner will have to maintain the country’s political stability while managing unemployment and migration to Europe. ANCy: South Africa is gearing up for its most contested national elections since becoming a non-racial democracy in 1994. The African National Congress has controlled power ever since. This year’s elections – which could take place as early as May – could change that. The ANC’s liberation laurels are fading, forcing it to contend with a citizenry disillusioned by high-profile corruption scandals and unmet promises. The party also faces a more organised opposition. The main opposition party – the centre-right Democratic Alliance – has formed a pre-election alliance with smaller parties. Multiple new parties have emerged, and independent candidates will vie for parliamentary seats for the first time. Voters seem less likely to vote based on ideology alone, and candidates’ positions on key issues like load shedding, unemployment, immigration, crime, and corruption could be determinative. Usual suspects + 1: Ghana’s national elections scheduled for 7 December will take place almost exactly two years after the country defaulted on its external debt and entered debt restructuring. The ruling party’s presidential candidate, incumbent Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia, has his work cut out for him. His main challenger, former President John Mahama, is looking to leverage widespread economic discontent in his comeback bid. To counter this, Bawumia will need to convincingly justify austerity measures and disprove corruption allegations. Meanwhile, both Bawumia and Mahama will be closely watching the “New Force,” a populist movement that hopes to disrupt the country’s current two-party system. Democracy postponed: Africa’s Sahel region won’t see a democratic wave to reverse a wave of coups over the past three years. Elections were supposed to take place in military-ruled Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mali this year. But elections are only likely to happen in Chad (Burkina Faso and Mali indefinitely postponed theirs). A December 2023 constitutional referendum in Chad could help solidify the power of junta leader Mahamat Idriss Deby, whose father ruled the country with an iron fist for 30 years before dying in 2021. Deby initially said he wouldn’t run for president, then delayed elections by two years and... you guessed it, changed his mind. Other elections to keep an eye on... In Rwanda, President Paul Kagame will (once again) look to extend his decades-long grip on power. He has little to fear: he won nearly 99% of the vote in 2017 and many of his political opponents have been jailed or killed. Presidential and National Assembly elections will take place 15-16 July. In Tunisia, President Kais Saied looks to further entrench power in October’s presidential election. He has rolled back democratic reforms stemming from the Arab Spring, jailed political opponents, and refuses to allow foreign election monitors. He’s also stoked anti-immigration sentiment and abused refugees’ rights whilst brokering a €1 billion aid deal last year with the EU, which wants his help curbing migration. Turnout for last year’s parliamentary election was just 11%, down from 67% in 2014. In Botswana, the ruling Botswana Democratic Party is in jeopardy of being unseated for the first time since the country’s independence from British rule in 1966. Corruption allegations against President Mokgweetsi Masisi are weighing down the party’s chances, with half of Botswanans saying that most or all officials in the president’s office are corrupt. The election of parliamentarians – who then choose the president – is expected in October. In Guinea-Bissau, a coup attempt in December 2023 prompted President Umaro Sissoco Embalo to dissolve parliament and appoint a new prime minister (twice). The jury is out on whether those developments will impact presidential elections scheduled for November. Although Somaliland’s sovereignty may not be internationally recognised, recent controversy around a port access deal with Ethiopia has given new geopolitical relevance to its November election. From the ONE Team
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Quote of the week
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Hero and zero of the weekHERO: Germany, for bringing its greenhouse gas emissions to a 70-year low in 2023. Calling all other G7 members... ZERO: South Africa’s ruling ANC party, for only admitting its role in enabling former President Jacob Zuma’s corruption now that Zuma is threatening to back a new opposition party. Such courage! |
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What you should read, watch, and listen to:
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A LOOK AHEAD13 Jan - 11 Feb: The African Cup of Nations takes place in Côte d’Ivoire. 14 Jan: Scheduled presidential and gubernatorial elections in Comoros. 15-19 Jan: World Economic Forum 2024 Annual Meeting on the apparently unironic theme “Rebuilding Trust” in Davos, Switzerland. |
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The ONE Campaign’s data.one.org provides cutting edge data and analysis on the economic, political, and social changes impacting Africa. Check it out HERE. |
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