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The world’s most powerful economies meet in Brazil on Monday. High ambitions may get tethered to political reality.

3 things to know

1. Brazil is going after hunger. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has championed the creation of the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty. It is expected to be launched at next week’s leader’s summit. Germany was the first G20 country to join the alliance.

Why it matters: 309 million people are facing acute hunger across 71 countries. Yet food assistance is often lacking. Last year, the World Food Programme had to cut the size of food assistance by 50% due to funding declines. The Global Alliance aims to streamline policy and funding processes to help countries better address food insecurity.

2. Brazil’s plan to tax billionaires faces an uphill battle. It wants to use the summit to secure support for a 2% tax on billionaires to finance the fight against inequality. Doing so could raise up to US$250 billion a year. But it faces political headwinds, not least of all because of the recent political upheavals in the US and Germany (more on that below).

Why it matters: Global inequality has skyrocketed in recent decades. The richest 10% own more than half of the world’s income. The poorest half get just 8.5%. Meanwhile, the funding gap to meet the climate and development needs of developing countries is measured in trillions. And G20 members including France, Germany, UK, and US have cut their aid budgets this year. So new revenue streams for development are needed.

3. Political changes in the US and Germany could thwart summit progress. Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s call for a snap election create uncertainty around whether either new administration will uphold any commitments made at this year's G20.

Why it matters: That could have a chilling effect on summit negotiations given the uncertainty over whether any summit agreement would be respected by the next US and German governments. Geopolitical tensions also jeopardise G20 talks. Insiders insist that a consensus leaders’ declaration will be issued, with contentious issues being shuttled into a chair’s summary.

From the ONE Team

• Joe Kraus on why rich countries’ fossil fuel subsidies are relevant to COP29 negotiations.

IN THE QUEUE:

• Lula eyes Brazil’s G20 summit with a plan to tax billionaires.
• What Trump’s second presidential term might mean for Africa.
• Why Africa is paying more for debt.

The ONE Campaign’s data.one.org provides cutting edge data and analysis on the economic, political, and social changes impacting Africa. Check it out HERE.

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