This week: Hope for peace in Ethiopia, high-income countries are all talk and little action on climate finance, and tuberculosis makes big gains.

Top News:

Peace progress: Ethiopia and Tigray rebels agreed to a “permanent cessation of hostilities.” Formal peace talks between the Ethiopian government and Tigrayan rebel leaders in South Africa led to the announcement. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed complained of “heavy foreign influence.” Peace can’t come soon enough: Violence, including against civilians, has raged in northern Ethiopia, and the UN warned that atrocity crimes could be imminent.

Mixed messaging: High-income countries and development finance institutions will need their investment flows to match their words if they truly want low-income countries to accelerate their energy transitions. Just 8% of the $785 billion invested in clean energy last year went to emerging economies, and public foreign investments hit a 10-year low. Initiatives like South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Partnership are a positive example of high-income countries stepping up. But the program's lack of grant funding is unlikely to work as a model for more debt-strapped countries. Overall climate finance to developing countries continues to fall short of promised targets and climate adaptation needs.

U-Turn: New UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reversed his decision to snub other leaders at COP 27. As co-chair of the conference, Sunak faced considerable pressure to show up and was criticised for his initial decision to skip the conference due to domestic economic concerns. The UK government reportedly also asked King Charles not to attend, despite the monarch’s long running passion for the environment. Sunak’s resolve to skip the conference may well have buckled under the weight of criticism thrown the UK’s way for failing to deliver on a promised $300 million in climate finance to developing countries.

Solution focused: Oyster growers in Senegal are using mangrove trees to fend off rising seas. From 1950 to the early 2000s, Senegal’s coastline receded by an average of 7.2 feet a year. During the same period, almost a third of the mangrove forest disappeared. But replanting is fending off the erosion and restoring a habitat for oysters and other fish, which in turn provide a livelihood for fisherfolk. The roughly 530-kilometer Atlantic coastline, where roughly half of Senegal’s 17 million people live, continues to erode.

Hunger games: Russia rejoined the UN-brokered deal to export Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea, after halting its participation over the weekend. As Russia waffled, wheat prices soared – a sobering reminder of what may come when the deal expires on 19 November. The Kremlin rationalised its temporary withdrawal with unsubstantiated claims that Ukraine levied an attack within the protected corridor. Ukraine-aligned powers accused the Kremlin of playing “hunger games” and weaponising food amid considerable military defeats. Since Russia’s unprovoked invasion, an additional 60.5 million people are experiencing hunger. Read more at data.one.org.

Africa’s many suitors: China joined calls to deliver a G20 seat for the AU, also doubling down on food and military aid for African counterparts. Putin delivered a fiery speech, linking his actions with Africa’s struggle against colonialism, while touting Africa’s potential and blaming Africa’s financial woes on western governments. Meanwhile, the Africa-Europe Foundation warned that a fractured relationship between the two continents could undermine meaningful progress at COP 27. Inequitable responses to COVID-19 and Europe’s failure to deliver on climate finance play a part – with Mo Ibrahim warning not to “take Africa for granted. Africa has many suitors.”

Crimes against humanity: Three African countries — Eswatini, Liberia, and Somalia — signed a statement at the UN condemning China’s human rights abuses in Xinjiang. The statement, led by Canada, called on China to recognize the findings of a UN report, which described China’s actions in the region as “crimes against humanity.” When Western countries publish these statements, China tends to rally its coalition of Global South countries with a counter-statement. Insiders think that Somalia (which has robust relations with China) may be courting the West as a way to provoke China into providing future concessions.

Pathetically low: COVID-19 and “pathetically low” funding to fight tuberculosis contributed to the first increase in TB infections in nearly 20 years. Approximately 10.6 million people globally were infected in 2021, a 4.5% increase from the previous year. African countries account for one-quarter of cases and about one-third of deaths. COVID-19 lockdowns impeded access to TB testing and treatment, and diverted critical funding – which dropped to $5.4 billion in 2021, less than half of the World Health Organization’s annual target. Meanwhile, the UK government just completely missed its deadline to pledge for the Global Fund, which is the main source of international funding to fight TB. 🤯

A bitter pill: In a national address, Ghana’s President Nana Akufo-Addo acknowledged that the $3 billion Ghana is seeking from the IMF would only help shore up public finances in the short run. Like many other low- and middle-income countries, Ghana’s capacity to sustain its debt payments has been eroded away by the compounded aftershocks of COVID-19, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and recent interest rate increases in the US. With an incoming IMF bailout likely to exacerbate inflation for the millions of Ghanaians already struggling with a cost of living crisis, the road to macroeconomic stability remains a long one.

From the ONE Team:

• ‘We Thought You Were Going to be a Good Girl’: ONE CEO Gayle Smith joins US Ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas Greenfield, on Politico to confront the male world order.
• Gayle writes a monthly column for Forbes on the injustices of the international system and how to fix them.
• The UK missed a(nother) opportunity to show the UK cares. ONE’s UK Director Romilly Greenhill highlights a missed deadline to contribute to the life saving Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria
• The EU should support a permanent African Union seat at the G20, writes ONE’s Global Policy Director David McNair in German Newspaper Der Tagesspiegel
• Learn about lagging progress on climate finance and what needs to happen at COP 27 from ONE Policy Directors Amy Dodd and Joe Kraus.
• Can’t make it to Sharm El Sheikh? Register for our Think-In “Living in a heating world: lessons from the Global South,” hosted by the New York Times and Tortoise Media in partnership with ONE.

The Numbers:

• 68%: The portion of US international finance for fossil fuel projects that has gone to African countries in the years since the Paris Agreement. (Guardian)
• 9.5 million: The tonnes of maize, wheat, sunflower products, barley, rapeseed, and soy that have been exported out of Ukraine under the Black Sea grain deal. (Reuters)

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

"It’s a horrible thing to say but until more people in developed nations are dying because of the climate crisis, it’s not going to change."

– Lee White, Gabon’s Environment Minister

What you should read, watch & listen to:

• China to consider pending debt payments before lending to African countries. (Africa Report)
• Some reasons for optimism on global climate action in the lead up to COP 27. (Financial Times)
• African Union Commissioner Amani Abou-Zeid on Africa’s energy and infrastructure needs in the wake of multiple crises. (African Cities Research Consortium)
• This collection of contemporary films from Africa and its diaspora in the 10th edition of Film Africa. (British Film Institute)

A look ahead:

7-10 November: 18th Annual General Meeting of the Intergovernmental Forum on Mining, Minerals, Metals and Sustainable Development in Geneva, Switzerland

7-18 November: UN Climate Change Conference 2022 (UNFCCC COP 27) in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt

8 November: US midterm elections

10 November: African Union 2nd Men’s Conference on Positive Masculinity in Dakar, Senegal

The ONE Campaign’s Africa COVID-19 Tracker brings together the key data points on how COVID-19 is impacting Africa. Check it out HERE.

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